Taiwan
Has it a future?
Debate in soc.culture.china/soc.culture.taiwan sparked offby someone saying China will attack if it declares independence; others disagree warn of US intervention.
Aug 30, 2004

Posted by Bad boy
Taiwan is not a country.... it is a province of China. Its existence is not recognised by the UN and most nations in the world.
China will tolerate the regime in Taipei as long as it will eventually reunites with China 50 years after the death of the CKS. 20 years had passed and Taiwan is not moving along the road of unification.
The leadership in Taiwan is ambitious. They want to be a neo colony of the USA, serving as an unsinkable aircraft carrier for the USA.
Will China allow this to happen? No. It is a silly dream of the Taiwanese leaders. China is prepared to defend its territorial integrity at all cost, including nuclear war.
Taiwanese leaders are also working towards gaining independence. They have encouraged Taiwanese to regard Taiwan as an independent country. They plan to change the Taiwanese constitution which explicitly recognise the status of Taiwan as a province of China.
Will China allow this to happen? No. it is a foolish act. It will give China the justification of taking Taiwan by force before the 30 years is up. The consequence for Taiwanese is like what happened to Tibet, a forced unification.
The future of Taiwan is bad, because its leadership are making all the wrong move.
What alternatives do Taiwan have? Any idea. Bad boy.

Jim Walsh
Bad boy thought carefully and wrote: Do Taiwan has a bright future? Taiwan is not a country.... it is a province of China.
So, in Taiwan, young men serve in the People's Liberation Army, spend Chinese money, and final court appeals go to Beijing. Furthermore, if you want a visa to visit Taiwan, you can get it at the PRC Embassy.
What? All of this is false? You mean Bad Boy is talking thru his hat?

Bad boy
Taiwan existence is not recognised by the UN and most nations in the world.
The government in Taipei is allowed to exist by the grace of the Government in Beijng, for 50 years after CKS's death. The end is near, only 30 years left or sooner, if and when Chen declares independence.
The future of Taiwan? BAD, boy!

Jim Walsh
The government in Taipei is allowed to exist by the grace of the Government in Beijng...
I doubt it. Dictators always want to increase their power, which also means increasing the size of the land and the number of the people that they rule.
If the Butchers of TAM (TianAmMen)could have taken Taiwan, they would have. If, by misfortune, it ever becomes possible to take Taiwan, I expect that they will.
Fortunately, it is seems unlikely that the Butchers of TAM will have the power to take Taiwan for the foreseeable future.

abianchen
Taiwanese went to mainland China need to apply Taiwan Compatriot Card, Chen Shui-bian did it too in 1991 when he visited Beijing, by your logic, those Taiwanese including Chen Shui-bian recognise they are PRC citizen.

Don Trickle
Murdering 23,000,000 people with nuclear weapon? Does China's 13,000,000,000,000 have a future afterward? Or even now?

Bad boy
If left alone to solve its domestic problem with Taiwan, China will continue to treat Americans as good friends. If the USA ever interfered, it must be prepared for the worse.
China will certainly go for broke, including using nuclear weapon. The US will have to pay for colossal price for sticking its fingers in China's domestic affair.
Remember, China is NOT Iraq or Afghanistan. The war,(the choice is with the US) with the US will be far, far worse than the war in Korea or Vietnam.
China is prepared for the ultimate, to maintain its territorial integrity, including to die as a nation like the Soviet Union. But there will be bad, bad damages inflicted on the
USA, including US cities suffering the same fate as Nagasaki and Hiroshima.
Bush will have to answer for any nuclear incidents for his foolhardiness to engage China.
Tsun Tze said: " A friend fighting on the side of my foe, is a bigger foe to me" To be friend or foe, it is Bush's call, NOT China's call.

Henry
I have a difference view in this situation because the China knew that if war break off both side have to pay for the price of war. China will have no problem to take on Taiwan but with just a few missile hit china of any province it good enough for China to rebuilt on both Taiwan and it mainland, money is not an issue to China but to get China to be what it is now, it take time to rebuilt and so the investors were be off for other country. I don't think China is willing to take the chance even Taiwan will to declare independence.

Bad boy
Your view is very common among pro-independence Taiwanese. They are seriously wrong, are guilty of not knowing their opponent and gross misjudgement.
China has something called 'core interests' which will be supreme above all else, ...above trade, about economy, about foreign investments, above 2008 Olympics, ... Top of this core interests is territorial integrity.
PLA will swamp Taiwan immediate if Chen declares independence.
To test China's resolve, Chen could simply make a declaration of independence. It is the 'invitation', PLA's generals are waiting for, for some time.
Tsun Tze said: " Know your enemy, you will win every war". Taiwanese do not know the psyche of the Chinese leaders.

Henry
If what you say is true than China is a very, very dangerous country. some day when china become strong in Technology, She will take on the world this is because even now china has no respect for other country that why she make noise on any VIP from all over world who visit Taiwan, it is as good as if you don't a person, you try to stop other to be friend with the person you hate. I think China don't to practice independence and human right. She will also take action against any country who go against her policy in the future.

Joe
War is old men talking and young men fighting.
There are many aging Chinese leaders within the military and communist
party.
I think these men with one leg already in the coffin would not hesitate to go to war for their own personal glory.

Bad boy
China is no more dangerous than a good friend. She will be friendly to those who are friendly to China.
In the last fifty years, it has not initiated any conflict with another county except when under serious provocation, or its 'core' interest was attacked. China is essentially a peace-loving nation.
In comparison, the US is much more dangerous. The US invaded Iraq for oil.
However, when its 'core' interest is threatened, China will strike like a cobra. It cannot allow anyone to threaten its survival.
It is not true to say that China will act against anyone who threatens ANY of its policies. No. China will act only when its 'CORE' interest is threatened.
Bush will not get help from EU, Russia, India, or Pakistan. These countries will not help Taiwan going independence. Bush is a loner and a cowboy.
However, if he decide to intervene in China's domestic affair, the US cities will suffer the same fate as Hiroshima and Nagasaki. He and he alone will be responsible for death of Americans in the US cities.
He will have to chose whether to be friend or foe of China. As friend, no American will die, no nuclear war.
As a foe, hell will break loose in US cities and cities in China.
It is his call.
Americans can stop Bush from such foolhardiness. They could vote Kerry to be the next president and kick Bush out of the White House.

Parallax
If China ever attacks Taiwan, I predict:-
The PRC air force lasts about 8 hours.
PRC navy will be sunk within 3 hours.
PLA will suffer massive casualties within hours.
PRC will threaten nuke attacks on US cities.
USA publicizes these threats and then launches non nuke attacks on PRC
nuke storage areas.
PRC attempts to launch a nuke attack but fails.
US launches massive nuke strike on PRC leadership. Riots break out all over PRC against the PRC government. PRC government falls within two weeks after the beginning of the crisis.
Aug 30, 2004