By-election
After the landslide, uncertainty
With Anwar Ibrahim soon to enter Parliament as opposition leader, the scenario will change dramatically; with it greater prospects for instability. Opinion. By Seah Chiang Nee
Aug 27, 2008

The power equation has swung towards Mr. Anwar Ibrahim, the charismatic, hard-fighting leader of the Pakatan Rakyat (Peoples’ Alliance) coalition, raising his status both at home and abroad.

His convincing win with an increased majority, has also raised his political credibility that could put him to a better position to carry out another of his promises: to win control in Malaysia through defections of government MPs.

He needs only 30 to form the government, which he has said will happen on Sept. 16.

This will be Malaysia’s next preoccupation, and if he succeeds it will raise all sorts of potential dangers.

Instability

The Barisan Nasional (National Front), led by UMNO, has been in power since independence, and it is unlikely to go quietly.

Some Malaysian observers believe it will resort to extra-constitutional means to thwart Anwar’s ambition, including one of the following: -

a) Call for fresh elections (must have royal assent).
Comment: Possible, if it sees it has nothing to lose and possibly something to gain. If that happens it could be the dirtiest election in Malaysia’s history.

b) Order a state of emergency, especially with the slightest excuse of national threat (following a riot, a protest, or an economic perceived danger, etc - provoked or real) – with BN suspending Parliament and governing with special powers.
Comment: Unlikely, a coup like this is too risky and widely opposed by all parties, which will make it hard to govern effectively.

c) Declare martial rule for a year or such time so as to allow Barisan Nasional (BN) time to “wean out” opposition members through detentions or defections, before making a comeback. During this time the armed forces, under pro-BN generals will govern.
Comment: Can forget it. Extremely slim; it will provoke a bloody civil war. Malaysia has no tradition of military coups, not even during the May 13, 1969 race riots when the generals were asked to take over, but refused.
Besides, Malaysians will likely react violently to such an event with possible bloodshed on the streets– at least initially. A military coup may succeed in Singapore – but not in Malaysia. The economy will be blown to pieces for a long time to come.
Besides, many of the soldiers (almost all Malays) may not follow orders to hit out at the opposition, which also comprises Malays (including PAS), let alone open fire at them. In fact, some young military officers are sympathetic to Pakatan Rakyat.

Likely scenerio

The most likely scenario is that UMNO and its partners – MIC and MCA, etc – will go into opposition (a strong one comprising almost half the House) if Anwar wins and try to work itself back into power by fair means or foul before or in the next election.

Anwar’s “smaller” problems

Anwar Ibrahim is also facing a host of seemingly unsolvable problems, if he becomes Prime Minister.

The first - less threatening now - is his sodomy trial, whose sting was vastly reduced even before the by-election when the prosecutors changed the charge against him from forced to consensual sodomy.

His biggest help is the state’s lack of evidence beyond testimony of one person, the accused, Saiful, who is widely disbelieved by the Malays (70%). The trouble with the “consensual” charge is that Saiful still insists it was rape, which makes it very hard to make it stick.

The bigger ones

(1) Malay support. An Anwar Ibrahim in power, with his secular, multi-racial platform (with large sympathies from Singaporeans) will have a tough time pleasing the Malays who want protection, privileges and dominance. The are same problems for faced by UMNO.

And if he gives in too much to these demands - over rights, religion, education, etc - it will alienate his Chinese and Indian supporters who helped put him in power.

(2) Another tough act is balancing the demands of his Aliiance members - especially between the Chinese Democratic Party (DAP) and the Islamic fundamentalist PAS, which believes in an Islamic state.
Although PAS leadership currently bends towards multi-racial cooperation for political survival, there will be no lasting solution, only a series of temporary compromises. This means the problem will not die.

(3) Another group he needs to pacify are the royalists, a declining but still formidable rural oonservative group, which is wary of Anwar because of the sodomy charges. Besides, the Sultans have recently adopted a higher political profile, a trend that will likely increase in the future.

The priority of both the government and opposition - whether UMN0 or Pakatan Rakyat - will be to maintain security and stability during any power change-over - if and when it comes.

Trade, investment and tourism need to proceed smoothly and foreign investors assured and reassured by action. If it fails, the country will be in real trouble and Singapore, being one of Malaysia’s biggest partners and close neighbour, will suffer for it.
By Seah Chiang Nee