ST forum
Mahathir-Abdullah clash
For Mahathir what tipped the balance was Badawi's freeing of Anwar Ibrahim, says KL-based journalist Leslie Lopez. powerpresent blog.
Jul 6, 2006

Lopez was one of two Straits Times journalists who gave their insight into the leadership crisis. The other was its KL Bureau Chief Rene Ahmad. The unofficial transcripts of their talks were contained in: -

1. http://powerpresent.blogspot.com/2006/07/transcript-of-leslie-lopez-spore-forum.html
2. http://powerpresent.blogspot.com/2006/07/transcript-of-reme-ahmad-spore-global.html

The Forum ‘What lies behind the standoff’ between Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Prime Minister PM Abdullah Ahmad Badawi was organised by the Straits Times in association with the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (Iseas) and the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA).

By Leslie Lopez

"We witnessed many political upheavals in Malaysia over the last two decades especially during Dr Mahathir’s leadership and it is always fairly easy to determine the outcome no matter what the twist and turns were.

Dr. Mahathir’s always won as he set the rules of the game. The latest feud between Dr Mahathir and PM Abdullah Ahmad Badawi puts the former PM at a slight disadvantage simply because he no longer controla the levers of power. But underestimating Dr Mahathir would be political folly.

For my presentation today I will like to divide it into three parts. In the first, I plan to argue that the fight isn’t simply about personality but rather about the ongoing feud or rather battle between how one shapes the Malay/Malaysian society.

In the second I would like to present the reasons behind this widely publicised political fight and finally why Dr. Mahathir is moving at this particular time.

Without doubt Dr. Mahathir’s harsh attacks against the government over policy issues have presented Mr. Abdullah’s three-year government with its worst political crisis.

It has put the business community, foreign and local, on edge and raised concerns that the differences between the two men could actually trigger a split in UMNO, the ruling political party.

But the differences aren’t just about policy differences or personality clashes, it is also about how and what values should shape future ethnic Malay/Malaysian society.

Over the last two decades Dr. Mahathir has very aggressively imposed his vision of modernisation on his Malay race with the state playing the very central role in economic development.

His Malaysia is a country which bristles with concrete symbols and modernisation skyscrapers, bullet trains, super-highways, high-tech society, high-tech cities by year 2020.

Economic advancement during this time was accompanied by strict limits on democratic practices and in institutions too.

In the process Dr. Mahathir actually created very much a cult personality where Malays and Malaysians identified themselves with a strong leader, a patronage source who could dispense patronage.

Mr. Abdullah, on the other hand, espouses a vision anchored in the thinking of Malaysia’s political elite before Dr. Mahathir came to power. It is one that places premium on consensual politics, values such as gallantarism and also a sense of affection.

The reform agenda that Mr. Abdullah has outlined shortly after taking power which called for more independence for the judiciary, other watchdog agencies, pushing for more transparency in the police force as well as the award of large contracts completely clashed with what Dr. Mahathir was trying to pursue and all the systems and practices that Dr Mahathir had established during his time.

I think it is important to note that these two forces have actually clashed before among the political elite.

In 1987 if you recall forces led by Musa Hitam including Abdullah (Badawi) used Tengku Razeigh (Hamzah) as a proxy and they actually fought Mahathir and his allies. Dr. Mahathir, if you remember, narrowly scrapped through but it was enough to make sure that his rivals were actually in a position to challenge or undermine what he had set out to do.

Now I come to the second part. Why is this taking place and what triggers it? I think to understand that we probably have to back a bit in time. To understand why Dr. Mahathir picked Mr. Abdullah as the number two.

Dr. Mahathir was a very dramatic type. After sacking Annuar Ibrahim, Dr. Mahathir was fighting for his political survivor, elections loomed and the Malay political ground was never so divided.

He needed a deputy who wasn’t just politically unambitious but a loyal subservient lieutenant trusted to preserve his legacy.

Above all he needed someone who was the least likely to cut a deal with Annuar Ibrahim. Abdullah fitted this profile very nicely. Mahathir always considered Abdullah to be a grassroots politician, a nice guy, and very little vision, if any.

There was also no love loss between Abdullah and Annuar. Their rivalry went back a long way and they both came from Penang. And basically Mahathir thought that he would be the best guy, and in a nutshell had the best policy against any kind of an Annuar comeback.

But shortly after becoming premier in 2003, Abdullah recast himself probably backed by this very sleek group of spin-doctors an antithesis of Mahathir.

He overturned large contracts promoted by his former boss, initiated a crack down on corruption, charged a sitting minister, went after a closed associate of Mahathir, Eric Chia who was involved in the Perwaja scandal. Then he pushed ahead with transparency in government and also measure to liberalised the economy.

Amongst politicians and government people closed to Dr Mahathir basically said that all these changes were weighted on Dr Mahathir. It was a situation he was willing to prepare for.

Then came the release of Annuar Ibrahim in September 2004. A business friend closed to both of them told me once that shortly after Annuar was released, an angry Dr Mahathir told Daim Zainuddin that by freeing Annuar, Abdullah had freed him from the promise not to reenter politics.

To many in Kuala Lumpur, that was actually the sort of tipping point. It was a point where some Rubicon has been crossed at and differences over policies that Mahathir tolerated became just unacceptable.

Now we come to the next question. Why is Dr. Mahathir moving now?

I think it is safe to assume that the magic that accompanied Mr. Abdullah’s takeover of the premiership of late 2003 has lost its spell. His critics argued that his reformist tools he trumpeted during the early months had not arrived.

There is also general restiveness among the public and UMNO over Mr. Abdullah economics policy.

His push to make the Malaysia’s economy more competitive by cutting back on fuel and power subsidy has actually raised cost of living for general Malaysians. So there is general disappointment and anger among the public.

Also there is a growing sense of disillusionment, particularly in the business community who grumbled that Abdullah’s economic measures have trimmed business and in particular hurt key sector like the construction sector which has been a source of patronage dishing out contracts for UMNO and for people closed to UMNO.

With all these negative sentiments, the thinking is that Dr. Mahathir believes by moving now, his views, his measures actually, will gain fracture, will resonate amongst the Malaysian public."

http://powerpresent.blogspot.com/2006/07/transcript-of-leslie-lopez-spore-forum.html

By Rene Ahmad, Malaysia Bureau Chief.

“I will now speak on the key players in this battle and what is likely to happen next. The main player is, of course, Dr Mahathir himself. He is very determined at this point of time to actually chase PM Abdullah from office.

He has said things just two week ago like “I will pursue the case - sampai ke lubang cacin” – in Malay that means ‘right into the worm’s hole”

That is a term you would use against your enemies. That is a very serious term to use. He has said other things despite that a mediator hasn’t been found.

He has said, “It is my duty to correct things that have gone wrong in the government”. And he is very angry that the selling out of the country according to him because of the ‘bridge’ and ‘sand’ issues.

Additionally he feels that PM Abdullah has passed some of his powers to his advisers and even to the son-in-law. So that is not something he is going to take sitting down.

But one thing about Dr. Mahathir that everyone would know that in his 22 years as Prime Minister he has:-

* fought against the Sultans twice and won,
* fought against the judges after sacking three justices and won,
* fought against Musa Hitam and Tengku Razeleigh Hamzah (former deputy president and vice president) and won. He fought against Annuar Ibrahim.

In 1998 he actually fought against the currency traders. He won by closing the economy and banning the Ringgit from trading. So this is a man who has won all major battles and I think he thinks he can win this one.

Now the big question on people’s mind is actually how far he is willing to go this time. That is not very clear. People keep asking me about “What is his end game?” That is not very clear at the moment.

Now on the second player is, of course, Abdullah himself. He is actually barely three years in office. He will only be three years in office in October. So some people say, "come on, three years what can he do, can you please give him more time"

But to his critics, three years is a long time. He has promised, when he came into office he raised expectations on reforms, anti corruption, transparency, and to some people all these have stopped.

And there are also questions whether he is a consensual player or just plain indecisive. For example there are 35 cabinet committees, committees chaired by Najib and him.

And many cabinet committees to discuss things like education, illegal immigrants and reforms in police.

Some people felt there were just discussing without making any decisions. And of course the problems of UMNO being used to being fed with contracts and all that and that has not happen so far.

Then the question for him is “How far is he willing to fight Dr. Mahathir?” He has so far maintained his so-called “elegant silence”.

But that has not stopped his people from uncovering Mahathir’s misdeeds in the past or alleged misdeeds. Now it is not clear whether he is willing to fight dirty, is he a street fighter like Mahathir or not?

The third person is Najib, still 53 very very young for Malaysian politician. He has remained loyal to Abdullah Badawi and if you talk to his people, he will not barge for too many reasons both to his advantage.

If somehow, the prime Minister becomes weaker because of Mahathir’s attacks, then he will become Prime Minister Najib.

On the other hand if for some reasons these attacks make Abdullah Badawi stronger, UMNO rallies to him; people saying Mahathir’s talking nonsense. Then people said, “Wow, what a great deputy, loyal guy he is” so again he will get the throne.

But the big question is - if UNMO is stirred hard enough, if Mahathir keeps attacking and attacking and the UMNO ground is moved. People are to ask, start asking, “Come on lets do something” and Najib has always seen as an overcautious politician. So will he move this time around?

In 1998 some people will say that the reason why Annuar move against Mahathir was because Mahathir was having these economic problems, the currency crisis. Some of his advisors say “Let’s move now”; that happened to be a mistake. So Najib may not want to follow the same path.

The other one, well still a side player actually in this game is Anwar Ibrahim 51, two years younger. When he fell off with Mahathir after 1998, whatever he said were not published in the main-stream media.

But nowadays, if he said anything, it will be published in the main-stream media. So people are talking that he is being politically cleansed or politically reformed so that he can mount a franking attack on Dr Mahathir.

But it won’t be easy for him to return to UMNO because he has made certain remarks against, for example, the New Economic Policy that favours the Malays. He seems to indicate that this should now be abandoned.

But we are now not sure how Anwar is going to play the game. Just a few days ago, he had a press conference attended by everybody and instead of attacking Mahathir, he said Mahathir should be given the platform to say something because “he did this to me, you must not do it to him”.

But at the same time, Anwar has so many secrets against Dr Mahathir, that it will be dangerous to unleash him.

The other issue on what is going to happen next actually is the media. The media claims to be freer under Pak Lah today but they have been quite active in running Marathir’s stories.

Mahathir will say all these stories are to demonise me. You made me out to be a senile old man or an angry man with no real purpose.

If they were to do that to the main-stream media is because of what Dr. Mahathir taught them over 22 years. Basically he told them, "nothing for the opposition and nothing for those who have fallen out of favor with me." So they just play by the same rules.

Interesting enough, another media that is going to help Mahathir now; ten years ago when he set up the Multi-Media Super Corridor; to attract the investors, he promised them “I will not censure the Internet, you can published anything”

So now with the main stream media so called demonising him, he turned to bloggers and news portals – which is quite interesting to Dr Mahathir, as he gave an interview to Malaysiakini.com, just a few years ago he tried to shut them down.

And two weeks ago he gave a talk at Malaysia Today a news portal, which was a small news portal and that has now come mainstream, thanks to Dr Mahathir.

So what’s next for him? Someone suggested in one of the blog forums that maybe he would start his own blog. That would be interesting, isn’t?

And what if he someone else suggested he should do one kind of Pod cast where he can address the people directly since he said he is being demonise. This is something he is looking at.

Now after this, there is another thing that is being discussed as kind of fun and part superstition.

Some people actually believe in this - the UMNO version of the Da Vinci Code - which is basically that the all the Prime Ministers of Malaysia must have the name of the first Prime Minister, Tengku Abdul Rahman.

But you can see the list is R – Rahman, A – Abdul Razak, H – Hussein, M – Mahathir, A – was supposed to be Anwar.

Anwar supporters - were pushing this very hard. It is going to be Anwar, Anwar, and Anwar and suddenly it cannot be Najib because you got to fill the A.

Then Abdullah came out of nowhere. Everybody was startled. So Najib supporters are saying that N, our boss will be next. But to Anwar supporters, the N can still stand for Anwar.”

http://powerpresent.blogspot.com/2006/07/transcript-of-reme-ahmad-spore-global.html