Anwar
Euphoria fades
He'll never become Malaysian PM outside UMNO; his Islamic-reformist ticket likely to affect PAS more. By Seah Chiang Nee.
Sep 15, 2004 (updated)

During an interview in 1987, Kelantan prince Tunku Razaleigh Hamzah, who had moved out of UMNO to take the ruling party on, suddenly asked me: "As an outsider what do you think of our chances?"

A general election was coming and he had launched Semangat 46 as a vehicle to win power. So what he probably meant was: "Do you think I can defeat UMNO and become Prime Minister?"

We were having a sandwich lunch with plenty of cucumber and carrot (he was worried about heart problems) at his office, dubbed as "The White House" in the heart of Kuala Lumpur because it's façade resembled it.

I said I believed that as long as he remained outside UMNO, his chances of becoming leader of Malaysia were very slim. "I think the Malays are not yet prepared to abandon UMNO."

Not this generation at least, I added. UMNO was no Congress Party, India or LDP, Japan (both lost power after a generation). The Malays needed UMNO for identity, for protection, I added.

Now with the picture clearing about Anwar's release, we know several things. Firstly, UMNO doesn't want him back and he himself doesn't want to go back yet. Secondly, there was no secret deal.

But speculation is still widespread about his prospect.

And when friends ask me whether I think Anwar Ibrahim - suave, charismatic and a great organiser - can make it to the top, I give the same answer that I offered Tunku Razaleigh.

As long as he remains outside UMNO, his chances of becoming Prime Minister are almost non-existent.

The prospect of Anwar's Keadilan (Justice) Party defeating UMNO is just not going to happen in this generation at least - unless UMNO obliges it by acting idiotically and killing itself. I'm sure Anwar won't disagree with this.

Currently, Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi, who has a huge mandate, is himself occupying a popular middle ground as a moderate Islamic and reformist leader. If he trips up badly, well that's another story.

Nevertheless, I have worked long enough in Asia never to say 'never'. No one can rule out the possibility that the freed reformist leader will one day return to UMNO and work himself up again.

In many ways Anwar Ibrahim is no Tunku Razaleigh. He is what the latter never was.

Anwar is an international figure, well known and well liked in the US, Europe, the Islamic world and several Asean nations, a unlikely advantage available to few Malaysians so crucial in this globalised environment.

He is charismatic, politically shrewd and has exceptional organisation ability. Razaleigh, who had a large royalist following, will never able to match Anwar's media skill.

Assuming Anwar returns to lead his reformasi Keadilan Party, what will happen to Malaysia's political landscape? Here's my opinion.

(1) He will exert some pressure on UMNO, pushing it to move faster in reforming itself. More so, it may force it to stick closer to make Malaysia a (secular) Islamic country.

(2) Anwar - not Keadilan - will become a magnet to attract ambitious rivals in UMNO to PM Abdullah Badawi to challenge his leadership. UMNO politics could become hotter.

(3) But the biggest threat will be felt by the Islamic fundamentalist PAS, which fared poorly in the last election and badly split on how to pursue its religious agenda in the future.

Realising many of the younger generation are turning away from the party's radical policies, the faction of educated professionals is working hard to put on an acceptable Islamic face on PAS.

They want to emphasise fighting Government corruption and injustice to win votes.

This is precisely what a revitalised Anwar wants to do, except it has succeeded in harnessing the non-Malays under his banner, something PAS can never do. In fact, it is also what UMNO proclaims it wants to achieve.

Anwar could win over the PAS moderates and prevent PAS from growing. Keadilan and PAS could end up fighting over the shrivelled electorate base in the next election. UMNO could benefit from it.

All this, of course, assumes that Anwar can regain his old attractive magic.

The Malays, including many youths, in Malaysia are broadly still a conservative lot. The court may free him from jail for sodomy (may even declare him innocent of abuse of power conviction), but the political harm is done to his reputation.

For devout Muslims, having a leader who is a convicted sodomist may be hard to swallow. Even the two majority judges who set him free, issued the following,

"To summarise our judgment, even though reading the appeal record, we find evidence to confirm that the appellants were involved in homosexual activities and we are more inclined to believe that the alleged incident at Tivoli Villa did happen.."

(Latest: The former deputy premier has just been delivered another blow. Malaysia's highest court unanimously refused to hear his new appeal against corruption conviction, which has dashed his hope of going back to politics before 2008.
(His last resort is to seek a royal pardon, but has always refused to take this road, saying it would 'confirm his guilt' in the public's mind.)

Much as I like Anwar and support his objectives, I have to say this: It is hard to erase his record in the court of Muslim public opinion.
By Seah Chiang Nee