Election
An awesome sweep
Signs point to big win for ruling alliance, retaking Trengganu, and major setbacks for two opposition parties. By Seah Chiang Nee
Mar 20, 2004

In the past few days, the campaign fog has been clearing to point to a powerful win for the governing Barisan Nasional in Malaysia's general election tomorrow.

With campaign winding down, it is becoming clear that - under the new Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi - the governing Barisan Nasional (BN) has beaten back a strong challenge from the radical Islamic party, PAS.

The UMNO-led coalition appears set to regain much of the the ground lost in the 1999 election as a result of the mistreatment of Anwar Ibrahim.

In that election, more than half the Malays voted for PAS. BN's retention of power was based on non-Malay support.

Former premier, Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, told AP that Anwar's black eye delivered by the police chief had cost him 300,000 votes. This influence now appears to have significantly declined.

Its two-thirds majority in the Federal Parliament is in no danger. My own prediction (as good or as bad as the next person) is that the BN will :-

1) Retain Kedah and Perlis, which are special takeover targets, with a better showing than before.

2) Win back Trengganu state from PAS by a small margin (no two-thirds majority) and failing only in Kelantan.

3) Badly maul the Democratic Action Party (DAP) and Justice Party (Keadilan) of Anwar Ibrahim.

4) Increase its own total votes substantially. The popular votes nationwide for opposition parties will fall. Least affected is PAS, whose support base will remain largely intact.

There appears to be a note of despondency in the opposition camp, including PAS, which has uncharacteristically launched personal attacks on Prime Minister Abdullah. It is not going down well with rural Malays.

The optimism in the government camp is exceedingly high to the worry of some UMNO leaders. Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak yesterday warned his party's campaign workers that "over-confidence can be perilous."

He was commenting on an international rating agency's prediction that BN will win 80 per cent, or 175 of the 219 Parliamentary seats. (It currently holds 152 of the 193 seats.)

Being wiped out

The Free Anwar Campaign (FAC) called on voters to vote opposition to save some checks and balances.

When asked why the pessimism, a spokesman replied that outside PAS-controlled Kelantan and Trengganu, "the opposition is in very serious trouble."

He added very candidly: "It is clear that the opposition, especially PAS, is simply not in a position to form an alternative government.

"In fact, there is little likelihood that the Opposition can break the (governing) BN's two-thirds majority, or even save its share of seats in the parliament," he added.

The ruling alliance had plenty of money, party resources, manpower, its control of the media and the machinery to redraw electoral boundaries to its advantage, he said.

A long-time political commentator and government critic, Kim Quek, believes that the election may be the last rites the opposition DAP and Keadilan.

Despite tremendous odds in 1999, the ruling coalition had won an overpowering majority and retained its two-thirds majority.

With a new premier who had won hearts and minds of people at home and abroad as "Mr. Clean", how could the opposition do better, he asked.

Foreign powers led by US had turned friendly towards Malaysia, thanks partly to Sept 11 and partly to Mr. Abdullah's more amiable diplomacy.

"Economic growth has returned to normalcy, with the stock market surging and foreign investors beginning to take an interest again in the Malaysian economy," he added.

As for the DAP, he said, it was facing the inevitable prospect of losing whatever meagre Malay votes it managed to secure through association with PAS and Keadilan in the last election.

"Without this small dose of Malay votes, DAP will only have a fighting chance of winning in constituencies where Chinese electorates constitute more than 70 percent of the total electorate," he said.

Keadilan may face a even more bleak future, in view of an expected return flow of Malay support to Umno, and an erosion of Chinese support due to Keadilan's continued association with PAS, Kim Quek said.

He made an implied call to voters to prevent the demise of these parties when he asked, "Are we aware of the full consequences of such an eventuality? What must we do as voters to avert it?"
By Seah Chiang Nee