Skinning an "unfriendly" cat
Mahathir's personal feelings towards Singapore may explain stepped-up action not only on water but a host of other issues - Pedra Branca, reclamation, etc. Take them all together and what do you see?
Jan 31, 2003

It is hard to be friendly with Singapore. It is insincere. Singapore does not always observe international norms and Malaysia has problems dealing with it. Kiasu (afraid to lose).

These comments - randomly taken - from the Malaysian Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, makes it easy to believe that he doesn't like Singapore.

Some believe, in fact, that the dislike is quite strong. If anyone needs further convincing it would have come from his statement that "there are many ways to skin a cat (Singapore)."

These ways, one can see, have been implemented in the past year or two in the form of a package of stepped-up pressures on Singapore:

* Water. Threats to unilaterally change the terms of the water agreements to force the city to pay more for raw water.

* Pedra Branca. Risking a confrontation by sending ships to challenge Singapore's de factor control of Pedra Branca (an island it claims) even while agreeing to refer the dispute to the International Court of Justice.

* Reclamation. Threatening to retaliate if Singapore does not address Malaysia's concerns about land reclamation projects in the narrow waters separating the two countries. "If they do as they wish, we too can do as we wish," Mahathir said.

These actions are coming at a time when Singapore is weakened by an economic crisis and preoccupied with security against bombing attacks.

There is also a view in Kuala Lumpur that Singaporeans are disenchanted with their government over price increases and job losses.

Last week, a FM93.8 radio reporter rang me for reaction to Foreign Minister, S. Jeyakumar's statement in Parliament.

I told the reporter what worried me was it was not just one issue, but a series of conflicts being intensified, one after another, that implied a strategy of sorts to skin an "unfriendly" cat.

On Singapore's part, it has to face these issues one by one rather than as a package because Mahathir (having suggested it) had rejected combining them.

So what is to Singapore a series of "flips and flops" in Malaysia's proposals for a water solution was, in fact, a tightening of the screws.

At the same time, Malaysia also stepped up pressure on other issues - Pedra Branca and Singapore's reclamation work (it wants stopped). It also includes a vocabulary of war and "bloody noses."

Does Malaysia not realise the seriousness of such a move since it concerns Singapore's survival, I was asked.

My answer was "yes." That was the reason why the Malaysian media was at a loss initially on how to treat Jeyakumar's speech, in which he described the water pact was not about money, but Singapore's sovereignty.

Mahathir is a strong leader. He has always been the driving force behind Malaysia's actions, domestic and foreign. This includes policies towards Singapore.

There was media silence for a day or two. Every one would wait for Mahathir to react to the new development before weighing in all down the line.

And the Premier, knowing the serious potentials, would likely take time to consider the next move.

But I also told the radio reporter that Mahathir has 10 more months to go and I did not see a resolution of the conflicts at least until after his exit.

In fact, things are likely to get hotter during the run-up to its scheduled general election due in 2004, but which may take place this year.

It is unlikely that he will undergo a change of views about Singapore during the remainder of his leadership.

With the tensions raised to this level a rapprochement may be difficult at least until Mahathir's successor, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, a less confrontational politician, takes over.

Even that will be difficult if the premier decides to raise the stakes to a higher level and the emotions of Malays that will make it hard for Badawi or his ruling UMNO party to negotiate.

His pledge to remain a strong political voice "to help UMNO" even after his retirement also does not augur well for Malaysia-Singapore relations.

(The destruction of the Thai embassy in Phnom Penh by Cambodian mobs serves as a warning how dangerous raising people's emotions is and makes it imperative for KL and Singapore to step back a few paces).

One good sign is that Badawi has publicly stayed out of the conflict.

And from the Republic's side, Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong and (especially) his likely successor, Deputy Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, have also not taken part in the public exchange.

That would make it easier for a future fence-mending when everyone sees conflict as a lost cause and opts for the mutual benefits of working together. That's when both sides will have to compromise from existing positions.

When? One can only hope.
By Seah Chiang Nee