Hong Kong
Difference of two cities
Proposal for 10m population sparks lively debate unlike Singaporeans’ relative silence about theirs. Littlespeck.
Jun 23, 2007

When the Singapore government first dropped the target of a 6-7m population by 2030, it was greeted by a quiet almost non-response from the populace used to being led.

There was little public questioning or debate in the media about whether it was workable or about its social impact. Most people simply took it as a established fact.

This wasn’t the case reaction when Hong Kong’s chief executive Donald Tsang said HK should have 10m people, instead of the current 7m, there was active discussions among his people.

The media and the Internet, in English and Chinese, was platform for lively comments from the public and columnists. Many wanted answers; others were cynical.

This is a fundamental difference between the peoples of the two cities.

One has been raised to accept without question what the government tells them, while the other has independent views and not afraid to air them.

A few brief reactions:

Hemlocks diary
With the world taking a rare interest in Hong Kong ahead of the 10th anniversary of its return to the glorious motherland, visionary Chief Executive Donald Tsang decides the time is right for a dazzling display of the high quality governance that has made post-1997 life so interesting.

The city shall increase its population to 10 million, he decrees, thus enabling it to compete with New York and London as a global financial centre.

This intriguing idea arouses much chatter in the foyer of Perpetual Opulence Mansions this morning.

No one asks the ponderously predictable questions of where will we source and put the extra 3m people, because a letter from the Government on the notice board next to the elevators makes it all clear.

To accommodate the 40% increase in the number of residents, every housing block in the city will have to take in a number of newcomers.

Specifically, those of us living on my floor must give shelter to the Zhang family from Shanxi Province.

Mr Zhang is a millet farmer with a wife who keeps chickens and an eight-year-old son who is an experienced brick maker. They have been earmarked for training in credit default swap futures.

My neighbour Mr Ng the banker points out that the American and British financial hubs actually have populations similar to Hong Kong’s – in the 7-8m range.

Ms Chan the marketing manager reminds us that if you add Shenzhen to our own urban area, we instantly surpass the 10m mark.

In defence of Sir Bow-Tie, I suggest aiming for a figure of 19.15m, which would make us as competitive as Mexico City.

10m not sustainable
Source Hong Kong Standard

Sociologists and environmentalists have criticized Chief Executive Donald Tsang’s vision of a 10m population for Hong Kong as “unrealistic” and “unwise.”

Tsang told The Financial Times in an interview HK should increase its population by more than 40 percent as part of the effort to match New York and London as global financial centres.

Although Tsang stressed it is a long-term vision, sociologists and environmentalists raised doubts.

‘A Swiss watch makes more money than four cars in Japan’

Chu Hon-keung, environmental affairs manager of Friends of The Earth Hong Kong, said Tsang is not very clever if he thinks a population increase can lead to improved competitiveness.

“The more the better is an old concept,” Chu said. “If he just considers labour as competitiveness, he’s not very clever.”

He said Switzerland’s gross domestic product is high while its population is more or less the same as Hong Kong. He said Switzerland’s high GDP is due to its developed high-tech industries.

“The net profit from a watch made in Switzerland is equal to what four automobiles brings in Japan.”

“People will leave”

Chu said Hong Kong would have to pay a very high price to attain what Tsang said Hong Kong needs to boost immigration and education as well as the improved infrastructure necessary to build on its status as a financial centre.

“If the quality of life worsens in society, people will leave.”

"Distancing from Singapore"

In the interview, Tsang said Hong Kong had to “move up the governance scale so that we are in the same rank as New York and London, distancing ourselves completely from the likes of Singapore or Shanghai or everybody else where they are still very much a territorial market,” Tsang said.

“Where success will lie is in an adequate stock of human resources of the right quality to sustain and build a financial centre.

“We need an injection of new blood from all nationalities, particularly from the mainland, to grow our market in the mainland.”

But a sociologist said he doubts if Hong Kong can accommodate 10m people.

“It’s good to have a target, but it’s not realistic,” said Joe Leung Cho-bun, head of Hong Kong University’s department of social work and social administration.

Leung said land prices are already very high and that the problems with infrastructure, medical benefits and education are issues the government needs to deal with.

He also questioned the sources of a higher population, saying Hong Kong’s fertility rate is one of the lowest in the world.

“It’s easy to have 10m if the government continues to allow more people from the mainland to settle here.”

Mainlanders not well-educated; “is this what we want?”

However, Leung added, most mainland migrants are “family-reunion cases” involving mainly young wives of elderly Hong Kongers.

“Their education levels are not high and I don’t think this is what our chief executive wants for our society,” he said.

Leung said the quality of the population holds the key if Hong Kong wants to increase its competitiveness.

A quarter of the population has only primary-school education. “If we want to attract talent, we are competing with the whole world.

” It’s not easy to attract 3m of them. Singapore has begun attracting talent in the last 10 years and their population increase has just been 1m,” Leung said.

(Earlier this year, the Singapore government said it wanted to increase its population by 42 percent - from 4.5 million to 6.4 million over the next decade.)

According to Leung, it will take at least 50 years to achieve Tsang’s goal.

Chua Hoi-wai, a member of the population policy of the government’s Council for Sustainable Development, said 10 million is not impossible and that Hong Kong can accommodate such a population.

But he urged the government to pay attention to social problems and to balance the various interests of society if the population is raised.
“The government must have a new model for population development,” Chua said.
Jun 23, 2007