Singapore,
Post-Lee Kuan Yew
Growing more important, this subject - with Lee at 83 - is now occupying more Singaporean minds.
Nov 18, 2006

Will SG Change After LKY?
SammyBoy forum
(Edited. Please read Sammyboy.com's Alfresco Coffee Shop for full original).

Angry_One
I find it hard to understand why many Singaporeans believe that Singaporean will undergo a tumultuous change after Mr. Lee Kuan Yew’s death. They think that certain PAP politicians will shed off their masks of servitude and topple the regime, or if not, people will stop fearing whoever is left in charge.
LKY is just one frail man, but he has left a legacy, which we'll find hard to eradicate. All over the island, we see Singaporeans behaving like him once put in charge of anything - arrogant and intolerant of dissent. Even if he's gone, thousands can take his place. He's like Osama, whose death is inconsequential to his ideas.
Nonetheless, a regime change may not even happen. LKY has consolidated power around his family. Lee Hsien Loong (LHL) controls the premiership and finances of the country.
Ho Ching (his wife) controls a good portion of the economy. An army of bootlickers and robots await the PM’s command to defend his dynasty.
Can there be any hope left?

urbanturban
There are basically two views of the same coin.
LKY the strongman holding back suppressed views in Parliament.
LHL cannot hold back a real challenge internally from his party.

Heart Break Kid
Like in an MNC, there are gangs formed from people at the office. Each gang has its own interest. It’s the same with the Pappies, once Mr. Lee is gone every one will dare to voice his opinions.

Civil5
After LKY passes on, the fight will be interesting only if the Lees aren't able to buy off the rest, only if there's anyone as ambitious to take on the incumbent(s).
Every one's lying low for now and consolidating their power in groups. The sooner LKY passes on, the sooner the system will resolve its inherent tensions into its bi/tri/multi-polar factions.

Heart Break Kid
Think the Pappies are not united also. See them talk different tune, can't imagine what will happen if Lee dies. His son seems to be lacking of confidence..

wahlau466
My friend once gave me this analogy.
LKY, Lim Kim San, Goh Keng Swee, Toh Chin Chye and others were the original founders of the company. They built up the company. In a board meeting, they talked, discussed and argued like equal shareholders.
Then, many of the founder shareholders retired with the exception of LKY. They employed capable young scholars like Goh Chok Tong and gang. Remember, Goh and gang are senior managers BUT still paid employees.
They will never be able to stand up and talk in a board meeting with the standing of the founding shareholders. Their views may be accepted or rejected. The only loyalty they have is to the high salary paid.
They do not share in the vision of the company. They only do the task given to them. All their mistakes will be covered up and there is a code of conduct that governs all the other that comes in. To ensure that they do not talk, their retirement or retrenchment benefits are designed to ensure it.
Everybody wants a good life. Don't count them out. Will they revolt? Forget it. They will just pack and migrate with all the money given to them.

noble2000
Well this is the way I see it.
Everything boils down to how stable PAP is when old Uncle Lee migrates to the next dimension.
Scenario 1
There is no fraction within PAP and transition of power between the two generations of PAP leaders (whoever it might be) is smooth. Singapore's economy may not do so well in the next few months or next 1-2 years due to lost of confidence. But eventually things will work out well. However, we will probably see a greater presence of the opposition party in the Parliament.
Scenario 2
There is some fraction within PAP and transition of power between the two generations of PAP leaders (whoever it might be) is not really that smooth. The one taking over will probably take 1-2 years to consolidate the power within the party. Like fighting fire at his own backyard while his front door is on fire too. As usual Singapore economy will be affected for at least 2-3 years. In this case, opposition party will have much more presence then the first scenario.
Scenario 3
In the event that power transition is done really badly, PAP has too much internal conflict. Recovering from the lost of confidence will depends on when there is a strong and united party. Here the ball is open to everybody court. So anyone that plays the ball right will win the game. We may even end up like Taiwan, which we see now. Too many internal conflicts within parties and everyone tries to bring each other down. If no dominant party is able to step in, we will just dance our way to destruction.
Basically, everything now boils down to how the transition of power is done. I know it is sad to say this but I personally don’t think the opposition party has the manpower or experience to run the government by itself.
If Uncle Lee is going to prepare for his migration, I guess the first thing he will do is to lessen the influence of the opposition party. This will pave the way for the next successor, so that he can clean up his backyard while the fire at the door is still not a threat to his house.

rafabulouz
The passing of LKY will definitely see a more vibrant Singapore. People expressing themselves, sparkling innovation and creativity that ironically he has been trying to promote. There will also be more disorder, chaos, but it is not a bad thing, as more opportunities will be created out of it. Local enterprises will have more room to grow and develop. We will see more Sim Wong Woo's or maybe even a Li Ka-shing. PAP will no longer be seen as a nanny, but just a machine operator to ensure the mechanisms built up over the year from the British days continue to run smoothly.

noble2000
I definitely agree with you regarding a more vibrant Singapore. But fundamentally, nothing much will change unless the current legislation system is looked into, so as to allow great freedom for the public. Coming up with great ideas is one thing but being able to carry it out within the limits of the current legal system is another.
The legal system is the leash around every Singaporean's neck. If it is loosen within reasonable limits, it will empower Singaporeans with greater courage to try out new ideas, which are restricted previously. A good example is the mobile canteen idea.
If it is not for the fact that vendors had to adhere to strict guidelines like the area that they could operate in and how the business is to be run. My guess is that the plan would have been a great success.
Free and open market with loose legislation rules will allow greater competition among business, which encourages creativity and willingness to try out new ideas.
Personally, I would prefer the government to adopt a more corrective approach to new ideas, instead of a more preventive approach. Adopt a new idea with loose control and make fine tunings along the way when problems are out of control.
This allows people to try out different variation of this current idea. Adopting a preventive approach will only extinguish the creativity at an early phrase and the outcome is that no one is willing to become the first person to try anything new, in fear of the possible repercussions that may follow if they step out of bound.
As for the possible economic downturn, I personally view it as inevitable unless the successor is able to show either of the two following things. He/She could do the same job better than Uncle Lee, or he/she is willing to take a totally new approach to how the country is run, which will inspire the whole society to change for the better with the change of a new era.
The first item seems easy but would be the hardest to achieve by any successor. Despite some of my disapproval on Uncle Lee's approach to various issue, but personally, I say it would be hard to find an equal.
The second item seems hard but would be the easiest to achieve by any successor. Listen to what the people need and give what the people want is the sure win formula for stablising and revitalising a country. From the eyes of the World, Singapore would have changed for the better.

rafabulouz
The current mindset of Singaporeans is: no choice mah, we can't do anything about it, which is true to a large extent due to PAP's control and stranglehold on everything. But once the old man passes away, expression of ideas and alternative opinion will become more prevalent, things start to happen and people feel they can make a difference.
We will then be out of the comfort zone, and feel ourselves as part of nation-building, and that we have a role to play in shaping the future. New leaders will be born, and new entrepreneurs too, out of this natural process - not an artificial process like under the PAP.

regor56
Scenario 3 will be very likely, as all Foreign Talents’ MP will join forces and marginalise the local's MPs.
Foreign-born MPs will be successful, as our local MPs don't have a habit to look after their local people, preferring foreigners. They may even sabotage each other.

noble2000
I truly hope that Singaporeans would step up and make the changes when the time is right.
The general mindset of the Singaporeans is critical in the next era. Looking at things around myself, I feel that Singaporeans will definitely make the necessary adjustments.
The 3rd generation of Singaporeans is well-educated and well-informed. We are definitely ready to take on the task of taking care of our own country, given the right environment and opportunity, as compared to the times of the 1st and 2nd generations when the intellectual elites are the ones that ran the nation.
I see that is a necessary process for the intellectual elites to lead in the past and it is an inevitable outcome that the current generation will have a greater influence of our future after Uncle Lee migrates to the next dimension.
I would truly hope that we will be given the opportunity to see a distinct change in the way our country is run as mentioned in my previous post. It would be easier for the people and it would be easier for the next successor of Uncle Lee.

chinachina2
To know the answer, just look at Taiwan after Chiang, Korea after Park, India after Indira, China after Mao.
Singapore will go the same way. Things will get worse before they get better. I am a long-term bull, short-term bear on Singapore.

CHINAMAN06
Eh...can there be a scenario 4?
The opposition takes majority seats in Parliament and Singapore's economy might not do as well and more unemployment follows.
The current crop of opposition members aren't good enough to take over I guess.

anom1010
“Think the Pappies are not united also. See them talk different tune, can't imagine what will happen if Lau Lee dies. His son seems to be lacking of confidence.”
One thing they are united about is money. More money for them, the better, hence any policies geared towards that will gain support from everyone within and that is where most policies are engineered towards anyway as we can see.
Nothing much will change in the short term, until new members with opposite view mysteriously get chosen into the party to lead a new direction effecting changes. That will not happen at least 10 years down the road.

Heart Break Kid
But humans are very typical, once you got a lot of money, you will start thinking about power. Having more power will get you more money as well.

anom1010
That is typical human nature. Do you foresee an opposition party to win an election any time soon? Not very likely with present control! Which is why if members who are disengaged with the party's ancient policy of money, control, one power, gets into the party somehow and start to change the idea behind the party leading to opening up and breaking down of the whole ancient one power control.
The issue of power and greed can be monitored and be curbed by scrutiny, which of course means what we all long for, oppositions. Not a miserable 1% or 2% but a balanced proportion in Parliament.
Look at how the party elected is kept in check by the equally vocal and strong oppositions in Australia, USA etc. Not only that but with shadow cabinet consisting of shadow ministers to shadow every ministry or minister of the elected party.
Progress of decision-making might be slow with all that but you get transparency and strong opposition going against policies that would otherwise be negative for the country and its people. That’s worth every bit of it.

Heart Break Kid
Nobody really knows what will happen in PAP after lau lee dies. So far since 1965, he has been ard to control the whole party..his mai hum son can command any respect meh?

anom1010
The outrageous pay of ministers is cleverly crafted. Once you bring a man into a wealthy and comfortable life, they would not want to go back to living a normal or should I say a peasant-like life (pay).
They do that by wanting more wealth and that changes a mindset of a person. To that, no one will rock the boat too much even after Miniser Mentor is gone.
One thing I’m wondering is if opposition wins an election, will plans be done to cut back on the existing pay scale of MP and ministers to an appropriate level or will it increase like it has always done.

Heart Break Kid
But the problem is there are more back benched MPs that are not being paid millions, their eyes might go red after looking at those ministers' million dollar pay.

anom1010
MP allowance + board memberships is a lot of monetary incentives in itself.
No matter what happens or how it changes, it’s a lot better to look in from the outside than from within.
This place is not a home, it’s just a family-run motel with very bad customer service.

noble2000
I would say Scenario 4 (opposition winning election) is close to impossible. It is like saying Singapore Football Team winning the World Cup without winning the Asian Cup. No logical voter will vote in a government that has no experience in governing the country.
Singapore's opposition party has been opposition for too long. I would say experience in running the country on a macro-scale is close to none. But they presence in the Parliament is necessary and its something that we cannot do without. Perhaps in 10-15 years time, if more opposition party members take on more active roles in running of the country, only then we may see an opposition government.
That too will depend on how the Singapore's law evolve after Uncle Lee migrates to the next dimension. Would Singapore law accept an opposition minister in a government where PAP still holds the majority seats?

noble2000
Even if the Lee family collapses, Singapore will still be around because the people are still around. The question is how will Singapore look like then and how we proceed to pick up the pieces from where we will be then.
Join Malaysia as a state perhaps. No one ever said that it was impossible.
Or even maybe then, we would have a European Union in Asia (e.g. an Asian Union)? Talks are still going on and nothing is still certain from now. And more uncertainty will lie ahead when Uncle Lee migrates to next dimension.
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