Teo Chee Hean
Next Prime Minister?
At last Singapore has a visible, credible figure likely to succeed PM Lee Hsien Loong. By Seah Chiang Nee
Mar 28, 2008

For five years since Mr. Lee Hsien Loong became Prime Minister (in 2004), Singaporeans did not have any idea who would take over when he left, or if something were to happen to him.

Now, at last they have a clear idea.

The defence minister and former naval chief, Teo Chee Hean, who at 54, is three years younger than PM Lee, has been promoted as Deputy Prime Minister, and although he has not been officially named as the successor, the official statement made it clear he will fill the PM's place whenever he is away.

In Singapore's system, in which voters have no say on who the becomes the chief of state, this is almost as good as being crowned heir apparent.

Seniority: Wong Kan Seng

Not only in tenure in the post, byt also by party hierarchy, The other Dep PM (and Home Affairs Minister) Wong Kan Seng has seniority over Teo Chee Hean.

Only four months ago, in December last year, Mr. Wong who is related to the influential Lee family, was re-elected the party's 1st Asst Sec-General, second highest position next to Hsien Loong (who is Secretary-General.

Next in the pecking order is Teo Chee Hean as 2nd Asst Sec-Gen.

However, it is apparent that by being chosen as Acting PM during Lee's absence, Teo has the upperhand as takeover candidate.

Besides Mr. Wong, aged 62, is older than the PM himself. He is generally perceived as lacking Teo's political or leadership standing among Singaporeans, especially after the escape of alleged terrorist leader, Mas Selamat Kastari, from high security centre.

Not many people believe he is prime minister material.

It is unlikely that the ruling People's Action Party could be voted out of power in the next general election scheduled to be held in 2011, despite rising disastisfaction (among some quarters even deep anger) with its performance.

So come April 1, Singapore will have a prime minister-in-the-making in the cabinet, and this is what makes the announcement of a caibinet reshuffle last week a very special one.

In the nature of the PAP's way of selecting leaders (away from the public participation), most cabinet reshuffles had largely failed to attract much public interest.

A general public reaction used to go like this: Whatever new blood they bring in is of little interest to us; only to the PAP.

A good choice

So far reaction to Mr. Teo's front-runner promotion has been good, with many describing it is a good choice, especially after he said he would work hard to support the PM in closing ranks with the people.

A few commented that Teo is more humble than some of the arrogant scholar-type elites in the government.

I am glad he didn't say his first priority is to help imrpove the national assets, which, of course, has dark implications for Singaporeans.

If it materialises, he could be the first Prime Minister after the Lee Kuan Yew era comes to an end.

Other observations are as follows: -

(1) If Mr Teo Chee Hean really takes over as successor, it could mean Mr. Lee Hsien Loong (who once suffered from cancer) may step down earlier than the year 2021 he had once said would mark his exit. In 2021, Teo will be 67-years-old, a bit too old. By comparison, Hsien Loong was only 52 when he became Prime Minister.

(2) Keeping succession a bit unclear to the public is probably due to a desire to prevent party factionalism, even in the slightest form.
Secondly, it was probably Mr. Lee Kuan Yew's wish to see Hsien Loong at the helm for a sufficiently long time.

(3) Last April, Minister Mentor Lee said that because of the long period needed to groom a future leader (Hsien Loong said he would remain PM until 2021), those in the present cabinet would not make the grade as successor.
Lee Senior also said that the next PM could be a party outsider, who knows nothing about politics or statecraft, someone who is now in his 30s or early 40s now.

(4) If I am not reading too much on it, it could mean that Mr. Lee Kuan Yew's ideas for a younger ousider was turned down by his younger cabinet ministers.
They could not have been too pleased at being told that none of them is capable of taking over and some 'newbie' from ouside has to come in to do the job.

(5) This year Mr. Lee Kuan Yew makes history as the longest surviving leader (elected in general elections) in the world. The year 2009 marks his 50th year of existence as a political leader, having outlasted every any where in the world. As of now, his era lives on.

(6) The next question is when will Mr. Lee himself leave the cabinet? Will he stand for Parliament re-election in 2011 when he'll be 87. Ask 10 Singaporeans and almost to a man, they would probably reply: "Never" or "He'll probably die in office."
I do not think it is true. It could happen through a surprised decision. In politics, nothing is carved in stone.

(7) The new cabinet takes office on April 1 - two days before Malaysia has a new Prime Minister and a newly elected UMNO team that will likely - for better or worse - have an impact in Singapore. Is it merely accidental timing - or something else?

By Seah Chiang Nee (Littlespeck.com)