Snap election
In besieged Singapore?
Is it possible? Yes - but only if leaders feel the people’s crutch mentality is strong enough to let them win. By Seah Chiang Nee
Feb 28, 2009

HOW do Singaporeans, who have been raised to expect the best from their government, view the S$100bil loss of their invested assets?

Do they attribute it to global factors beyond anyone’s control or blame it on poor government judgement?

The issue could be highlighted in a snap election, if one really takes place this year, in the wake of two quick announcements last week by the Elections Department.

The department said it was updating the voter registers, and, a day later, the government gazette published the boundaries of altered polling districts.

These are normally done months before an election. The measures have raised speculation that the government – besieged by a host of economic problems – may want a snap election.

The next election is not due until three years later, in 2012.

Adding credibility to the talk is announced cuts on public transport – buses and trains – and electricity tariffs.

A flash election in the midst of a terrible recession and the spectacular loss of people’s reserves sounds like a political joke, yet Singaporeans take it seriously.

The rationale for it is that although the ground may not be sweet and the government may lose some support, holding it two years later could be worse.

For some time now, a pall of gloom has steadily been spreading among the city’s better-informed people as they analysed the dismal economic statistics.

For ordinary people, however, the crisis may not have sunk in and life appears undisturbed. Many, especially the Yuppies, still book holidays and eat in fancy restaurants.

Surfer Topsage said, “This crisis is deeper, sharper and more devastating than imagined. Many in Singapore are still complacent and calm because of the way information is controlled.

“Singapore and Singapore-based companies are badly hit by the crisis and demand has all but collapsed.”

The urgency has convinced them that polling will be called between May and November.

“The situation is deteriorating very fast; can’t delay, the earlier the election is held the better,” suggests Chicken.

Besides, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew, who has a heart problem, is ageing fast, he added.

It is believed that if Lee, 85, wants another five-year term as he has said he does, his People’s Action Party (PAP) would have to go to the polls now instead of 2012 when he’ll be 88.

“I believe June will be too late as the economic situation is getting worse by the day, and will not get better even in 2010 and 2011,” said C.F. Lai.

“Besides, the PAP Government won’t be able to keep a lid on those increasing ‘paper (investment) losses’.”

Some believe that it will be held later in the year, after the government has put some “real money” into Singaporean pockets to offset the impact of the downturn.

It has promised a second rescue package, or a supplementary budget, around August, when the recession may have truly bitten into their lives – probably using the reserves again.

In January, for the first time in history, it used S$4.6bil (RM11.1bil) out of the nation’s savings to generate jobs.

How badly is the economy faring? A glance at following recent headlines tells the dismal situation:

Feb 25: Hundreds of thousands of Singaporeans who had invested a portion of their CPF (Central Provi-dent Fund) retirement savings in stocks and unit trusts saw their values slashed by a third last year.

Feb 25: Some 99,000 jobs will likely be lost in this recession by 2010, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.8%, a DBS report said.

Feb 23: Singapore’s economy may shrink by more than the predicted -5% for 2009, announced PM Lee Hsien Loong.

Feb 23: Lee told his people to prepare for a “very tough” year, especially the next six months, and several slow years after that.

Feb 17: Non-oil exports plunged 35% in January as global demand for the island’s products collapsed. “Singapore is setting the wrong sort of records,” said a senior bank economist.

Are Singaporeans blaming it on the government? It depends on whom you ask. Prime Minister Lee apparently thinks they don’t.

His spokesman said in a letter: “Singaporeans may be apprehensive about the financial storm raging around us, but we understand the inescapable vulnerabilities of a small, open economy, and what we must do together to pull through.”

That letter was to the Financial Times, responding to a report alleging there was “an undercurrent of public discontent” with the PAP Government as Singapore goes into a sharp recession.

There is reason for the sensitivity, especially if an election is coming.

What the PAP fears most is an erosion of the “heartland” vote, which can be shaken up by the crisis.

“We will not lose in a snap election; at most some minor setbacks, maybe one or two seats,” said a PAP supporter. “We will be returned to power.”

“People may not like some of its policies, but in a crisis they won’t want change.”

He may not be far wrong about the crutch mentality.

Living in a nanny state has made too many Singaporeans dependent on government help when things go wrong. The present crisis is no exception.

American blogger Maltzajava wrote recently of a group of Singa-porean students asking him in a questionnaire, “What should the government do?” or “Is it doing enough?”

He said: “I found myself telling them, ‘Shouldn’t you be questioning if the government should do anything in the first place’?”

The nanny state may have served the past well – but he finds the overly high reliance hard to understand.

(This was published in The Star today under the headline “It’s a race against bad news”.)