Lee Hsien Loong
Thirteen more years
For reason of age, present cabinet ministers won’t make the grade; the next PM could be a a party outsider who knows nothing about politics or statecraft. By Seah Chiang Nee.
Apr 4, 2008

In most democracies, a Prime Minister who tells his party colleagues that they can rule themselves out as contenders to succeed him would have a political rebellion on his hands.

Evidently not in Singapore, where leadership succession is centrally planned, possibly decided by a handful of people.

This mass exclusion is what has just happened in Singapore, when Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, 56, made the following points: -

- He will remain as Prime Minister until 2021 when he will be 69 years old.

- He will urgently “look and groom” contenders, including a successor. Because of the long gestation period, the next Prime Minister must currently be in his 30s or early 40s.

- This virtually rule out the entire batch of current ministers by reason of age, if nothing else. Unless, Mr. Lee added, he is “run over by a bus” in which case one of them will take over.

I do not know who had the bigger shock when first given the information – the general public or People’s Action Party cabinet ministers who had aspirations for the top post?

The first question I have is: Why was such a big national issue not made in a policy statement to the nation or delivered in Parliament? Instead, it was made in an interview with two newspapers.

In fact, why was such a topic, which affects every Singaporean and his children, not discussed in Parliament first?

There have been no comments from any senior leader. Every one who is in it knows the game.

There had been PAP conflicts in the past but always confined within four walls with the losers quietly leaving. After the Barisan Sosialis (Socialist Front) breakaway, there had been no open intra-party confrontation.

This explains a large part the PAP’s longevity.

There will be unlikely be any immediately impact in the cabinet to Mr. Lee’s bombshell possibly at most one or two ministers resigning “for personal reasons” over a decent period of time.

It is unrealistic to expect many people to walk away from two or three million dollars a year.

Why the move?

The answer: The Charisma of Power!

To be effective, a political leader in Asia has to be seen as being able to exercise control over his subordinates.

For nearly four years – especially during the past year or so - Mr. Lee, who once suffered and was cured of cancer, has publicly been a rather quiet Prime Minister.

It contrasted sharply with his much more assertive, high profile father, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew, who at 84 is 28 years older, and seen as overshadowing the Prime Minister.

Lee Senior still makes the important speeches and trots all over the world to carry out state matters.

Recently, there had been periods when the Prime Minister had not attended a big function or delivered a major speech (the last was when he announced hosting the 2010 Youth Olympics).

This had led to frequent questions in the Internet whether he was ill and receiving treatment or if he was contemplating quitting in the next five-10 years.

The first order of the day is then: To make it clear that he will be around for a long time and himself “find and groom” contenders from whom a Prime Minister will be chosen.

In other words, he still retains the charisma of power.

The Prime Minister had to impress on his people – and his party subordinates - that he wields this power and ready to use it.

His father, Mr. Lee Kuan Yew, is advancing in years. No one can foretell if very one in the party hierarchy will stay united behind him once the Minister Mentor is no longer around.

PM Lee had to consolidate his power by putting in people of his own choice into the cabinet, so a future without Lee Kuan Yew will be less vulnerable.

The recent cabinet reshuffle – with more changes to come – was seen as part of the process.

For the moment, the objective has been achieved.

As long as Mr. Lee Kuan Yew continues to exert such powerful influence over the country, the party remains under his control.
By Seah Chiang Nee