Election 2006
Hsien Loong's mandate
This is a quick analysis of the election results. By Seah Chiang Nee.
May 7, 2006

The People's Action Party was returned to power with a strong - but reduced - majority with its traditional support base holding firm in the face of a resurgent Workers Party.

The strong showing was a relief for Mr. Lee Hsien Loong, who was seeking his first mandate as Prime Minister.

Sentiments were shifting towards WP and Singapore Democratic Alliance in the last few days of campaigning, with talk that PAP could lose seven or eight seats, including Aljunied GRC.

It didn't happen! Its past record of reliable government came through. Older conservative voters and housewives, traditional supporters, swung to the PAP side.

The party ended up with the same 82 out of 84 Parliament seats with 66.6% of the contested votes, down from 75% in 2001.

The opposition made no breakthrough in the new Parliament, but (except for Singapore Democratic Party) it did unexpectedly well. None lost their deposits.

Here are some highlights: -

1. Despite the budget goodies and the threat of withholding housing upgrading and lifts for opposition wards - very powerful tools - the PAP suffered a sharp 8.4% decline in its votes, the biggest since the 12.4% fall in 1984.
Without these carrots, the outcome could have been worst.
The setback was evidently caused by a rise of protest voters over 'bread-and-butter' issues or who are suffering from the recent economic downturn. Many younger Singaporeans may have voted against its 'unfair' political practices.

2. Strategy adopted PAP was surprisingly poor; it did more harm than good. For four of nine campaign days, it appeared to concentrate on one thing: Getting James Gomez, WP candidate for Aljunied, when voters wanted to know its plans for them. Its defamation suit, whatever the merit, against an entire opposition party, which was already disunited and weak, did not go down well. The WP-SDA strategy, (except for Gomez's error), on the other hand came across as mature, calm and focused. Kudos to leaders Low Thia Khiang and Sylvia Lim.

3. Mr. Lee Hsien Loong. Although satisfying, the results were not all to his favour. He had polled fewer votes than his predecessor, Mr. Goh Chok Tong. The six-member WP team of first-timers mostly in their 20s, termed 'virgin politicians', stole some of his luster, polling 33% in his Ang Moh Kio GRC. PAP chairman Lim Boon Heng had predicted up to 85% win for the PM.

4. Mr. Goh Chok Tong. Special PAP warrior who staked his reputation on winning back Hougang and Potong Pasir suffered a blow when he failed, both opposition constituencies having increased their winning margins. His promises worth a fortune to upgrade and provide lifts for all floors in these areas (regarded as bribes for votes), were reject by the voters. These proud residents are today admired by Singaporeans who dislike the PAP's use of 'carrots' from public funds to win elections.

5. Workers Party. Unless something untoward happens, it's future, as an alternative party appears assured. It retains its one seat with Sylvia Lim probably making it to the NCMP seat. Its leadership's acumen and maturity were proven in Election 2006. It's unexpectedly high 38.4% of contested votes could attract more qualified candidates, including graduates from universities abroad and at home. Some members are disappointed in failing to win Aljunied GRC, but overall the party has come out better than any other in this election.

6. SDP. Its lowest margin - 23.3% - at Sembawang GRC (mostly protest votes) confirms its decline. Weak, fragmented, it will probably disappear from the political radar for some time.

7. The voters generally revealed their practical approach to politics, delivering a sharp message of non-tolerance towards opposition politicians who are fishing for votes simply to 'hit out at the government'.

THE FUTURE

8. How will Lee Hsien Loong react to the election? There are two broad options.

Firstly, his government could take a hard-line approach to make life intolerable for the opposition, punish its members (like legal action against James Gomez), crack down on the Internet, toughen control of the media, etc

Secondly, to continue to open up society, work with credible, moderate opposition, be more tolerant towards dissenters and work hard to bond with disenchanted post-65'ers.

I suspect, he would probably like to pursue his own agenda and opt for the second to engage and win back the 33.4% - one out of three Singaporeans - anti-PAP voters.

After all, he has repeatedly promised a more open society where people can speak up without fear.
By Seah Chiang Nee