After 40 years
A tougher going
A highly demanding, more cynical society is harder to win over, but PAP still feels it holds the cards. By Seah Chiang Nee.
Mar 15, 2006

As a wet-behind-the-ears trainee reporter at Reuters in the 60s, I attended a Barisan Sosialis election rally and returned to office to wager a bet that this breakaway leftist party would beat the PAP hands down.

I had seen a huge boisterous crowd unlike anything I had ever seen. It compared with a milder affair at a PAP campaign and it convinced me that I knew something that my colleague - who hadn't seen it - did not.

How wrong! The PAP swept through. It was my first lesson as a journalist, that voters had a mind of their own that often ran counter to the size of rally and the campaign rhetoric.

Then in 1984, almost peak of Singapore's golden era, came my second lesson. At a time when almost PAP politicians were overwhelmingly predicting an easy win, 12.4% voters stung everyone by switching their votes away from it.

(The then PM) Mr. Lee admitted that the grass-root failed to spot the discontent, or maybe none dared to tell him the bad news. Only MP Chng Jit Koon (Tiong Baru) had come to him days before polling that things were not too good.

Predicting elections, or reading voters' collective sentiments, is a tough act even in stable, predictable Singapore.

Just basing it on previous results is sometimes risky. Politics is often about perceptions not necessarily logic or achievement.

We're heading for our 10th general election since independence. Doesn't seem to be an awful lot of experience. It's even less, considering too many people did not get to vote.

It has resulted in relative political naivety of the people, which - when mixed with the society's high expectation and widening divisiveness - could spell danger for the future.

What do I mean 'naïve'? From one side, we still hear people say things like "The government's doing so well, why do we need elections?" Or "Opposition parties are useless, only hinder the country".

From the other side, we have well informed citizens painting the PAP as low achievers despite transforming the island from poverty to a modern state. Others interpret criticism of the government to mean dislike of country, unable to distinguish the difference and rubbishing it at every turn.

But as pre-election temperature rises and anger sometimes replaces logic, it's important to put things into perspective. I have a few comments at this time.

Firstly, this is our 10th election and there will be, I'm sure, 100 more to come, so while big policies are almost always short-lived, Singapore, the nation, is a lasting entity.

Next, it is still doing relatively well and warrants no gloom.

Thirdly, no one - including the opposition - is thinking about kicking out the PAP in this election. That would be madness until someone qualified can take over.

The opposition

I believe the serious opposition parties realise this and know that 2006 is not yet their time, so that staying power would remain crucial for their longer-term ambitions.

Relatively weak, their best goal is to cause a bigger dent in the PAP's domination (maybe by winning a GRC or two and at least 35-40% of the votes) and lay the ground for a future challenge.

The more promising is the Workers Party, Singapore's oldest opposition, formed in 1957 (only three years after the PAP) which has announced plans to field 26 candidates, compared to two the last time.

Next is the coalition Singapore Democratic Alliance, which intends to contest for 20 seats (previously 13). Their plans, if implemented, will stop the PAP from winning the election on Nomination Day. The other parties have so far remained silence, but will probably join the fray.

At any rate the combined opposition will likely offer the stiffest challenge in 20 years.

The PAP

Formed 52 years ago, the PAP was helped create modern Singapore and is one of the longest governing parties in the world.

At one time it was considered more as a national movement than a political party that still holds all the strong cards.

Today's reality is that the opposition fortunes in the election depend - as before - on how the voters feel about the PAP rather than its own strength.

If they were contended with the ruling party, the opposition vote would fall; if not, it would go up. It will probably remain like this for a while.

That so many candidates are signing up to challenge it reflects at least their confidence that the ground is sweeter for them this time.

(This article was published in The New Paper on Mar 2, 2006)