Singapore
A demographic nightmare
Moving into First World means getting its problems, too. The city has plenty of those. By Seah Chiang Nee
Dec 14, 2003

IN less than eight years, Singapore’s population has risen by a quarter of its size, but this phenomenal growth hides a continuing demographic deterioration.

It increased from three million to 4.2 million since 1995, which was one of the fastest increase rates in the world and planners are preparing for a maximum of five million in the future.

The problem, however, lies in its own citizenry, which is shrinking as badly as some of the world’s most advanced cities.

The people here are ageing faster, marrying later, producing fewer babies and - as the economy stagnates - leaving for abroad in ever larger numbers.

As a result, Singapore is relying more on foreigners to raise and rejuvenate its population.
Actually, the trend is not new. As Singapore moved towards the ranks of developed nations in the 1980s, it also began inheriting their traits of later marriage, lower fertility, more divorces and a decline in the institution of marriage.

But as economic hardship increased in recent years, things got worse. After attaining a good education and a good English foundation, more youths are leaving to seek greener pastures in the West and Australia as unemployment rises and wages fall.

Australia was the most popular destination. Figures from the Australian High Commission showed 1,200 Singaporeans were granted permanent residency (PR) in the first half of last year.

This compared with more than 2,000 in 2001 and 1,600 in 2000. The number of Singaporeans who migrated to the US surged from 389 in 1998 to 1,108 in 2001.

The government says more than 100,000 Singaporeans are working or studying overseas. The leaders fear that a large number of them may not return. (This figure is comparable to the 4.2 million Americans living abroad out of a population of 180 million.)

One website survey has put Singapore’s average outflow at 26.11 migrants per 1,000 citizens, the second highest in the world - next only to Timor Leste (51.07).

Not much, however, is known of the source or its methodology, and since the statistics appear excessively high, people tend to take it with a large pinch of salt. But there’s no denying the push factors are strong - and growing.

Migration is increasing because of several factors. Firstly, it requires skills and financial resources to settle in the West - both of which the new generation has, unlike their parents.

But some new factors are coming into play, including:

* The Free Trade Agreement with the United States, which offers skilled Singaporeans 5,400 new visas a year to work there;

* Under-populated Australia aiming to substantially increase its population for economic growth. Singaporean migrants are generally well regarded;

* The rapid economic rise of China, which is providing more chances for bilingual Singaporeans to work and do business there.

A Straits Times poll earlier this year showed that 43% of the people wanted to migrate because life was too stressful in Singapore and 19% complained of high living costs.

And over the Internet, a larger number say they may want to leave to avoid the tight government controls here. The brain drain is only one of a series of poor demographic fundamentals.

Last week, Singapore’s birth rate was reported to be heading for an all-time low. In the first 10 months of this year, only 31,171 babies were born, down from 33,618 in the same period in 2002.

The government’s financial incentives for the second and third babies have evidently failed to stop the decline. For the whole of this year, the number of births is likely to fall below the 1986 low of 38,000 babies.

Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong said the island state’s population was shrinking mainly because its large number of highly educated women remained single.

"The statistics show clearly that we are not replacing ourselves. This is a serious problem," Goh told parliament.

For one thing, it will affect Singapore’s security, which relies on national service and a reservist army. Defence is in the hands of its own citizens, not foreigners, since permanent residents are not liable for the compulsory call-up.

All these demographic changes also have a negative impact on marriage and the family, considered the cornerstone of a stable society here.

Proportionately, more Singaporeans of various age groups are remaining single compared to 10 years ago. People are either marrying late or remaining unwed.

At the same time, the number of divorces reached 5,825 last year, a 14.4% jump that coincided with the record 39,500 jobs lost.

The marital break-up rate stands at 10-12 per 100 marriages, still far short of the 50% in America. But the attitude of the new generation will likely make things worse.

Some 45% of young Singaporeans (aged 15-24) said in a recent poll that they would consider divorce if things soured.

But the hottest debate is emigration. Last year, Goh sparked a rare public outcry in the city-state when he described Singaporeans who left the country as "quitters".

To an extent, the economy is becoming an arbiter. With jobs harder to come by, the argument against going overseas is losing steam.

"Applying for another country’s PR doesn’t mean we are deserting Singapore. We see ourselves as Singapore’s ambassadors to other countries," said Evonne Yeo, who is planning to migrate with her family to Australia.

Twenty years ago, when people were preparing to migrate, they did so secretly without telling many people. There seemed to be a sense of shame. They didn’t want people to know until they were gone, then they would drop a card to inform their friends.

Today, many talk about it openly, ask for advice over the web and throw farewell parties, seeing nothing unpatriotic about it.

Online writer "Loyal Singaporean" said he did not think emigration was all bad. Ex-Singaporeans overseas would be able to give Singapore a better link to the world, so that it could grow an external pair of wings.

"Singapore gave me an education to do well here in the US. Even if I never come back, I will always be grateful for it."

(This article was first published in The Sunday Star on Dec 14, 2003.)