Stocks
In times like this
Treating the market like a casino is only for those who can afford to lose. By Seah Chiang Nee.
Aug 5, 2007

HI, various uncles, I very scared, how? cried a young speculator evidently affected by last week’s severe market downturn.

He was among a breed of newcomers, including students, housewives and senior citizens, who became victims of the correction despite numerous prior warnings.

Coming two years before casinos catch hold, it has rekindled doubts about people’s sense of proportion when they allow their gambling streak to take over.

For the ethnic Chinese, it is, of course, not a new thing. For generations they have been avid gamblers, except today people have more money – and opportunities – to do so.

Lured by promise of easy money, thousands of students, young professionals, housewives and retirees have signed up trading accounts, pushing prices from one record to another.

Last week, the dizzying ride came to an abrupt end. In just a few days, the long expected market collapse wiped out much of the past gains – and then some.

It was a painful lesson to people who had believed that share trading was like playing in a casino.

Thousands put bets in a market that had overrun its fundamentals. Even a warning by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) failed to slow them down.

“Everybody knew a fall was imminent but told himself he would first make a killing before crisis hit,” an analyst said. They were playing the odds.

Visit any brokerage and you’ll likely encounter a group of men and women, many speaking Singlish or dialect, making bets as though they were sitting around a roulette table.

The wet-behind-the-ear newcomers buy shares on hearsay, gambling on companies without even knowing what business they are in or their profit records. They listen to “tips” from brokers or friends.

For thousands, this has turned into a big financial headache just before National Day.

“I need to top up by S$40,000 in the next few days and only have S$2,000 in the bank,” said someone who borrowed to buy shares as he watched their values plunged by the hour.

“They’ll probably force sell some shares to pay for others. I’ve lost much of my savings.”

Another said he had lost S$30,000 in one day, and a worker bemoaned about losing four months of his salary. “Where can I get a temporary loan, just need S$10,000,” a blogger asked.

More than half the people polled in an online survey said they had lost money in what was – until this week – a record bull run.

Speculation, another name for gambling in stocks, accounts for the bulk of stock trading. During the recent fever, an old timer told me, “We don’t need a casino. We have the stock market.”

Gambling is thriving even before the two US$5bil (RM17bil) casinos open in 2009. Singapore already has the dubious distinction of being Southeast Asia’s biggest gambling nation on a per capita basis.

Every day of the week one can either bet on horse racing, 4-D, lottery or Toto or on football matches, local and foreign.

Singapore Pools, the government-linked lottery operator, revealed in 2005 that it had a yearly turnover of S$4bil (RM9.2bil), which works out to a staggering S$11mil per day.

Singaporeans are estimated to have spent at least S$7-8bil (RM16.1-18.4bil) a year on gambling, excluding illegal betting, speculation on stocks or derivatives.

They are also said to have spent some S$900mil (RM2bil) in casinos overseas and on board cruise ships.

The people have plenty of preparation for Casino City 2009.

Private clubs operate 2,000 jackpot machines all over the island. The latest to join the game is the government linked-NTUC or National Trades Union Congress.

About 58% of Singaporeans aged 18 and above have taken part in gambling, with 2.1% in danger of addiction, according to a government survey.

The debate whether the city should allow casinos, which was a fundamental policy shift, was fierce both in and outside the government.

Although approval had been given and building is in progress, many critics still fear they will aggravate the gambling habit, break up families and ruin lives.

Already more than 40% of Singaporeans between 40 and 59 do not have a sufficient retirement fund.

“Many people, especially the poor, are depending on a Toto and 4-D windfall to get rich,” a one survey found.

Charities use “donate and win big prizes” appeals to attract funds with some giving away a condo as top prize.

The government has put in extra safeguards that other casino cities lack, one of which is that locals can gamble only with a S$100 (RM230) entry payment.

Counselling will be available for addicts and families can apply to have a problem spouse to be banned from playing there. Others to be barred include government aid recipients and bankrupts.

There are good reasons for this.

Take the jackpot mania. Its recent invasion into the heartland within easy reach or bored elderly citizens has raised some concern.

A woman wrote that her mother had become addicted to it, losing tens of thousands of dollars within a short time.

“She would have the maid and the baby (in a pram) whom she was supposed to baby-sit, wait for hours for her outside the jackpot room,” she added.

The last World Cup tournament drew millions in bets from young people, including students.

In one of the worst disasters two years ago, Simon Lee, 40, strangled his wife, slashed his two children before he blindfolded himself and jumped from his 12-storey flat. He was riddled with gambling debts.

(This was published in The Star, Malaysia on Aug 4, 2007)