Welcome 2005!
What's our future like?
After a good year, Singaporeans discuss their future with some anxiety. By Seah Chiang Nee.
Jan 2, 2004

PULLING out of a tragedy-marked 2004, anxious Singaporeans are questioning what their country's future would be in this rapidly changing world.

The discussions had been intense over websites, radio channels, weblogs and other forums during the past year, pointing to one conclusion: People feel their country has passed its peak.

They are asking: "In a fiercely competitive world, can a tiny, high-cost state with few resources survive?"

Along with 2005 has come the spreading shadow of new killer diseases, terrorism threats and the unprecedented tsunami and its after-effects.

By nature, Singaporeans are pessimists, always worried about their size and vulnerability. In recent years, these emotions have been working overtime.

Besides, the feeling remains that if the region is in bad shape, Singapore cannot do well.

Ironically, the appraisal comes at a time of a recovering economy and confidence, which is reflected in a strong surge in pre-New Year shopping.

What do informed Singaporeans think of their future? In this column, I'll let public views dominate rather than state what I feel or what the government says.

Singaporeans are worried about government control and its strong economic role. They fear an inability to compete with the harder working huge Chinese population and other neighbours.

A Radio 95.8 listener said in a recent forum that he often wondered why the Japanese and Taiwanese, who speak little English, are so successful selling their products and services to the world.

"Yet Singapore, with almost 80% of the population fluent in English, cannot make it," he said.

One reason, he felt, was that Singaporeans never bothered to find out what other people wanted and never dared to venture out.

They were too thin-skinned and could not accept failure.

An example was the driverless LRT, which was built without asking the people what they actually wanted and how much they were prepared to pay, he said.

Often, policies are made without first consulting the people. It's usually done after plans were finalised. "It's a case of people having to suit the policy and not the other way around." Hopefully, PM Lee Hsien Loong would change it, he added.

Columnist Lee Han Shih said recently: "In 2004, you have a whole generation brought up with prosperity but without diversity of thinking.

"Four decades of prosperity have made us fat, lazy and self-satisfied. We are ill-equipped to compete in the cutthroat, globalised world of the 21st century, especially with China looming in the background," he said.

What then is its future? "It is the soft side - self-generated businesses and to be a trading intermediary between India and China," he said. "(But) this needs freedom. The government has to let go."

Internet forums, too, were full of the subject.

Someone asked: "How do you see Singapore in 10 to 20 years?" It elicited the following comments.

* In 20 years' time, it is expected that:
·CHINA will be a giant economic power;
·INDONESIA will continue to languish economically and intellectually;
·SINGAPORE will be the gateway for Chinese companies to source for raw materials in South-East Asia; and
·WE WILL be earning a profit by arbitrating between China's need for raw materials and Indonesian supply.

* Can't really say, but we need to have more confidence in our own people.

* Have a feeling they (People's Action Party) will lose some seats, but not too many as to endanger our economy. Little better now. The worst is over now. Those manufacturers who wanted to pull out for China are already gone.

* Singapore can only be a tertiary industry (as it already is). How long can it survive depends on the competitive of our neighbours Hong Kong (backed by China), Malaysia, etc. The local job market will be very dark as companies practice contract employment. In 20 years, our people will have to work overseas. Singapore will just like a hotel for people.

* It looks bad, even lecturers are hired on contract basis. The good old days of iron rich bowl is over even for civil servants. Our boys are already working in China, don't need 20 years.

* (1) The gap between the 'have's' and 'have not's' will widen, brewing discontent.
(2) The natural unemployment rate will rise; fewer will marry and have babies, causing a falling population, which will be replace by foreigners.
(3) Mainland Chinese will continue to supplant us locals because they are cheaper labour. This will reduce cost but maintain productivity but at the expense of Singaporeans.
(4) Property prices will continue to fall very gradually over the years.

* Manufacturing will continue to shift production to China or Vietnam. Only scientists, engineers, skilled operators will be working in R&D factories. Others (legal, accounts, tax consultants) will work in hub or regional headquarters for MNCs. Will face stiff competition from Hong Kong, Malaysia.
Even as I write, a few MNCs have already shifted R&D to Shanghai and Beijing. For example, Microsoft has a research lab in Beijing.

* Singapore's future will depend on its strategic location on the global map. We'll be like a bus interchange, market place, intersection.

* The way I see it: There will be very few true breed Singaporeans in 20 to 30 years' time. Overall Singapore will be mostly filled with foreigners wanting to make money for a few years and go home.

* Singapore doesn't have much capability to create and build up it's own MNC's. Very few of them can make it. It still desperately needs to lure foreign MNCs to jump-start our economy. Its greatest failure lies in not producing big world players. The opportunities often go to the Government-linked companies.

A blogger identified as Christine said Singapore would have to face challenges in the next 25 years, including declining jobs and birth rate and rising competition.

But with good policies and the people's support, they could be overcome, she said.

Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew was an early pessimist when Singapore was expelled from Malaysia in 1965.

The then Prime Minister wasn't hopeful Singapore would still be around in 50 years' time, possibly becoming extinct like so many other small city-states in the ancient world.

Since the island's restructuring, Lee has revised this assessment. He now believes it will thrive and told youth recently that even better days are ahead for them.
(An expanded version of article published in The Sunday Star on Jan 2, 2005)