Singapore 2050
New world centre
It will have boomed most from the 2008 meltdown, forming centre of a new global order with Hong Kong, Shanghai and Dubai. The Australian.
Oct 9, 2008

Demographer Bernard Salt
Fast forward to 2050 and review the last 100 years.

The century began simply enough. The Americans and their allies won WWII and immediately set about dominating the global economy with a free market that produced consumer goods such as motor vehicles for a rising middle class.

The only credible competitor to the West was the USSR, but this system collapsed in 1989, allowing former Soviet states to embrace free market economies.

The undisputed headquarters of global capitalism during the late 20th century was Wall Street; it accommodated institutions that had the capacity to raise vast amounts of capital.

But the primacy of New York at the world's financial centre was challenged by London around the turn of the 21st century following two distinct developments.

The new free states of Eastern Europe as well as rising sovereign states in the Middle East orientated to London for capital raising purposes.

Russian billionaires and Arab sheiks embraced London's Belgravia more readily than Manhattan's Upper East Side. Then, of course, there was 9/11, which made London seem safer than New York.

Almost two decades after the collapse of the Soviet's socialist republic came the collapse the financial system that underpinned the free market.

The resultant state bailout of financial institutions propelled free market economies towards a more restrained version of capitalism.

And there you had the beginnings of the Great Convergence: the Soviets (and the Chinese) turned to capitalism in the 1990s; the Americans effectively nationalised their financial system a decade later.

Whereas in the 20th century capitalism's HQ was Wall Street, this role was shared with London after 2001. A decade later it was almost as if the finance-raising capability of New York and London City had been atomised.

New centres of world finance emerged simultaneously to buttress the old in cities far removed from the Atlantic nexus, such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai and Dubai.

Even Sydney benefited from what eventually would be known as the regionalisation of the global economy -- it was regarded as a pleasant enough place from which to manage Asian affairs.

Indeed, there was a preference by some global institutions to base their regional offices in lifestyle cities within reasonable proximity, or at least within the same time zone, of the moneymaking coalface.

This is much the same principle that permitted Russian billionaires to live in London but to derive their income from Russia.

The global moneymaking coalface in the early decades of the 21st century remained what would be known as the "middle-class-isation" of China, India and much of Eastern European.

But this coalface also included the reorientation of the oil-based economies of Middle Eastern states as well as the reconstruction of Iraq following the withdrawal of combat troops in 2015.

By 2025, Iraqi and Afghan migrants had formed enclaves in Sydney's southwest and Melbourne's north, which was not unlike the Vietnamese embrace of Cabramatta and Abbotsford a decade after the end of the Vietnam War.

It took some time for Australian - and global - business to appreciate the new economic alignment.

The US and Western Europe were still important - perhaps the most important - markets. But for the first time in 500 years, a critical mass of other centres of commercial influence emerged in Asia, India, the Middle East and across Russia.

The transition manifested itself in both blunt and subtle ways. The largest buildings, companies and capital reserves shifted from New York to Hong Kong and Dubai.

By the middle of the 2020s, popular culture television programmes were set in a chic English-speaking enclave of Shanghai.

At about the same time, most Westerners learnt how to say "hello" in Chinese: ni hao. Australians could even cite the most glamorous residential precinct in Singapore. And in Dubai one "Australian suburb" was known as the Earls Court of the Middle East.

But I think the piece de resistance of the new economic order came in 2020 when Qantas began a direct air service between Sydney and Moscow.

But there were more subtle effects of what would become known as the advent of the post-Atlantic world. Australians infiltrated the global community to a greater degree than ever before. Gone, too, by the middle of the century, was Australia's notorious cultural cringe.

No longer were Australians chronically aware of their isolation from the centre of global economic and cultural power. And the reason is not that some whiz-bang new technology enabled Australians to travel to Europe and North America in four hours.

The reason is that after the 2008 financial meltdown, the centre of world economic activity migrated closer to Australia.

Astute players in the Australian property industry read the changing landscape and positioned their businesses in Asia's ascendant cities.

Some - in fact many - had developed links with Dubai. This was especially the case with property consultants from the late 1990s onwards. But the real prize came with the recovery in 2010, when new financial services businesses burgeoned and demanded office and hotel accommodation.

Part of this momentum applied to Hong Kong and Shanghai, but for many Western companies these cities carried sovereign risk. The city that boomed most as a consequence of the meltdown was Singapore.

It offered cultural links with Britain and the US. It offered connections and proximity to China, India and Japan. The business community spoke English. And, best of all, Singapore had strong cultural and business links with Australia.

In view of this "future history", it might be a good idea to stay a night in Singapore on your way to London.

Comments
Brad of Canberra
A quick look at Darwin Airport's schedule for this month indicates 2-3 flights to Singapore per day, not including any airline which provides levels of service expected by human beings. Maybe they need a Multi-Function Polis to rev things up a little!

Benjamin of Singapore
In the new world order, there are great roles to be played by international cities like London, New York, Shanghai, Tokyo, Sydney, Seoul, Hongkong, Singapore, etc. These international cities may be part of a large nation or a small nation.
The important thing is that the international cities stay relevant and contribute to the international trade and finance. Singapore being a city state has to position strategically.
Firstly, its corporate sector has to attract great companies to set up their operations in Singapore.
Secondly, its people sector must attract the brightest and the most talented to live and work in Singapore. Thirdly, the government sector must provide the right environment the corporate sector and people sector to grow. If these are successfully carried out, even a small state like Singapore can have a chance to succeed in the new world order.

Smirking Liberal
When ever I have the misfortune to visit the slave-economy of Dubai, I always remember the final lines of Shelley's poem Ozymandias "...`My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings: Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!' Nothing beside remains. Round the decay Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare, The lone and level sands stretch far away." For Ozymandias, replace Sheikh Makhtoum. There is your future.

Singaporean
Expats like living in Singapore. Singaporeans don't. As a Singaporean, my opinion is that you can't project a bright future for Singapore based on the current performance. The current systems and structures are maintained by the vision of one man.
That man is now 85 years old. Its current crop of leaders are mere technocrats, most only had a brilliant academic record as their greatest achievement in life.
Australia has a lot more going for her in the future. The key is capitalising and strategising. The tide will turn in the next decade, but it may not benefit Singapore as much as one thinks.

James of Switzerland
Singapore is a jewel in SE Asia thanks to a combination of early British influence, leadership by Lee Kuan Yew in the late 20th century and a peaceful, disciplined, multicultural population with liberal values and highly reputable governance.
If Australian government and business leaders are smart they will promote Singapore as the Switzerland of the Far East and build ties that bind.
A strong, stable and independant Singapore is capability multiplier for the region. At the same time we Aussies need to be creative in our own economic activity and continue developing our strengths in international relations and business opportunies(...)

Too hopeful? of Melbourne
Mr Salt's prediction has to assume that Singapore will change. Right now the city is efficient, and clean and little else. There is little creativity, and the local authorities worry about it but continually fail to make headway.
The city's inability to make significant art, for example, is related to its continuing postcolonial cringe, and, more importantly to its lack of an integral underbelly, something it needs if it is to be a really alive place with soul; life is more than good nasi lemak for breakfast.
If you want to live on an island that is a gated community, fine... New York, London, Hong Kong, Shanghai and Sydney offer more than just banks; Singapore is sterile, a hospital with great views.
Perhaps it will be different in another 40 years, but it will have to remember the importance of the imund (l'immonde, the filthy, the earthy) for the psyche.
It seems today completely unaware that this aspect of life was part of all its heritages: Malay, Portugese, Dutch, Chinese, Indian, and Anglo.

Expat of Singapore
Singapore has done a fantastic job to get where it is, but as an Expat who lives here I see impediments to it's continued growth - not least because they are quickly running out of space here (it is a city state island - for those who don't know).
The government here plans to bring in another 1.5m immigrants over the next few years - I do wonder where they will house them. I'm paying about A$5,000 per month to live in a 1,000 sq ft apartment in the 'trendy' Orchard Road area.
Housing prices have come off a little bit of late, but if there is another migration surge I find it hard to believe how people will be able to afford to live here - especially as the expat packages of old are a thing of the past.
Australia has a great chance to do well in the merging new world order - but they need to sort out the tax system for personal and business tax.
Why bother living in Australia and paying oppressive rates of tax that probably take away 50% of my income when I can live it up in Singapore and pay around 10%? ..On a salary better than what I'd earn in Australia.

Ian Austin of Perth
As someone who has lived and worked in Singapore I think I am qualified to make comment here. The bottom line is that Singapore has overtaken Australia in significant areas: tax system, public transport, airport quality, airline quality, public education standards, to name a few.
Australian 'experts' who compare Australia's performance to OECD, Europe, whatever... simply show they are Euro-centric and living in a time warp.
Australia's democracy and creative industries areas are a huge strength, as are our environmental assets, but the idea that these make us a progressive/blessed nation are dubious at best. Singapore proves you need neither to be a gloabl success story.
Brains and long-term strategic thinking are the new Gold & Silver. I have been living in Perth for a bit over a year now, and for those of us whose work centres on Asia, living anywhere else makes no sense at all.
Fly imeediately north into Southeast Asia and you have 500m people - fly East and you have 18m... No brainer really...

Marty of Perth
I know that because Singapore, Beijing and Hong Kong all have the same time-zone as Perth that for this reason businesses oppose day-light savings for Western Australia.
A lot of business from the eastern states of Australia will migrate to Perth to be in the same time-zone as the new financial hubs of the world are in Asia.

Dave of Sydney
Singapore is awesome. Nice and warm all year round and virtually no crime as they are actually tough on crime. Though their democracy is a sham it does operate as an essentially benevolent dictatorship. A middle of the road guy who wants to work hard and have a great lifestyle need not worry.
Druggie losers need not apply...

Adam of Melbourne
If you were truly predicting the future, you'd have lost that cultural cringe that says it has to be the other place that works out best. Build Darwin, build it now. 4m people are needed there. Old Fogey above ain't demented.

simply kev of sydney
Bernard,very intersting as usual; you failed to mention that economic power normally co exists with military power - how does the ANZUS treaty look in 2050 and if its not relevant do you forsee another military alliance? China and India perhaps?

Baz of Melbourne
Keep dreaming buddy!

Old Fogey of Brisbane
I agree with your assessment of Singapore's potential and future at the centre of commercial affairs. Singapore also holds risks for foreign investors however, such as commercial espionage, lack of land (therefore skyrocketing rents) and filial links to China.
I propose Australia's own little-Dubai as a safer alternative - Darwin.

Aussie Pete of Singapore
You don't have to fast forward 42 years to to see how Singapore could be the next global city of choice. It's happening in front of us today.
With a population and government focused on sustainable growth, a considered yet proactive stance on investment and a time horizon of more than the next quarterly report, Singapore is showing Asia today how to perform.
In the coming years the rest of the world will be watching too. Don't just stop on your way to London to shop. Look, listen and learn.
There are plenty of Aussies here doing that right now. The big question is whether they will ever return to Australian shores with their new wealth and experience, or will the over regulation, compliance costs and taxation in Australia keep us here.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24467275-7583,00.html