Iraq-Saudi
And oil supply
Strong reason for Singapore to join US-led efforts to rebuild
Iraq now that Al Qaeda is targeting royal family and Saudi
oil. By Seah Chiang Nee.
Nov 12, 2003
Since
the oil crisis of 1974, Saudi Arabia has been a source of
stability that ensured its oil flows to Singapore and other
energy-dependent nations at reasonable prices.
With
the latest suicide bombings in Riyadh and a widespread support
base for al Qaeda among its citizens, the question is: "For
how long more?"
There
are pessimists who actually compare Saudi Arabia to Iran
before the Shah fell.
For
countries, which depend on oil, it is not just a theoretical
debate of right or wrong, but of survival.
That
means if Saudi falls to radical elements and becomes unstable,
world trade will be threatened unless an alternative source
can be found to replace it.
In fact,
if Saudi Arabia is destabilised, so will other Gulf oil
states, including Kuwait and United Arab Emirates.
The
mullahs in Iran, another big oil producer, will likely be
encouraged to move the country into a more extremist road.
This
makes a secular, friendly Iraq - and a rational oil policy
- an important strategic asset for a stable world.
It replace Saudi oil supply, if an extremist government
- heaven forbid - ousts the royal family and things get
out of control there. Iraq's oil supply is significantly
large enough to be able to do so.
Oil
was undoubtedly one of the factors for the US to overthrow
Saddam Hussein and take charge there. It also explains why
pulling out of Iraq is not an option now despite mounting
US military casualties.
If things
continue to deteriorate, the opposite may well happen.
Instead
of leaving, the US is likely to widen the action there,
moving from "pacification" to a new full-scale
war if more foreign "volunteers" and Al Qaeda
join up with Saddam forces to step up the bombings.
The danger is that it may involve neighbouring Syria and
Iran, accusing of not stopping foreign jihadis to infiltrate
into Iraq.
Other
than oil, there's also another reason why the world can't
afford a US pullout from Iraq, or worse a defeat.
That
would be a serious blow to American global leadership so
much needed now in the war against terrorism and allow tyrants
and radicals to cause more troubles.
Even
France, which vehemently opposed an attack on Iraq, now
says that a US withdrawal will be one of the world's worst
setbacks.
Singapore
has sent 192 military personnel on a two-month mission to
help US-led forces rebuild war-torn Iraq, accompanied by
a Landing Ship Tank (LST) and a C-130 transport aircraft.
Although
it is not a fighting contingent and involved only in transport,
logistics and medical work, it will undoubtedly face dangers.
The
bombers had targeted Polish and Italian troops, causing
casualties.
It has
also sent 32 police personnel to Iraq to train the local
force. It returned last August.
All
this is a minor contribution, but a crucial one, considering
the ultimate cost if things - especially the supply of oil
- doesn't work out.
By
Seah Chiang Nee